November 11, 2008

Been a while since I've been on here. Going to try to keep this up. Thinking about  it' not the end of life as we know it! This  too will past - there will be tomorrow and when the going gets tough, the tough get going. One of my old friends has lost  a ton in this current downturn but he expects that he will make a lot of money - you just don't give up. There's so much negative and naysayers out there but there are folks are  still making profit and they still plan on being around. Yes, Virginia - there will be a tomorrow!

 

January 2007

Happy New Year!!

Well, another year is coming to an end and what an interesting year it has been, especially in real estate.  We have had a great year in spite of what you might read or hear from the media.  The real estate market is still very strong and we have a lot of orders to prove it. What we are seeing out in the market is that big public builders are playing “Chicken Little”, running around saying the sky is falling and laying off their staff and selling projects.  We had one of our clients lay off their field staff in the summer and their sales staff sold a lot of product.  They did not have the staff to build what they sold.  When they tried to rehire the old staff, they would not go back to work for them. We had another client that had a big layoff and at the same time gave their corporate staff raises.  It doesn't make sense!!  If you want to save money, don't cut your field staff.  Those are the people that make you money.  If you want to save money, go to corporate or your regional offices and eliminate every other person there and you probably would not miss them.  Cut your overhead there, not at the field level. Thank you to all of those that helped us have a great year, and we look forward to working with you in the future. 

May 16, 2006

Here are the results of our informal econimic study. I have selected some responses form the emails that we recieved and gave my "two cents" worth. Thank you to all of those who participated.

Dave's responses are in green.

“Only trend I'm privy to is:  The high net worth individuals who pulled out of the stock market and VC markets after the crash in 2000, then moved into real estate, are pulling out of real estate and moving back into the stock market.  Not moving back to financing startups with Angel Funding.  Purely anecdotal observation, but shared by discussions with others.” G.B.

Always follow the money! If you ever see me make an investment do a 180 out from what I do and you'll do great.

“Mortgage loan brokers are still entering the market (like me).  The re-finance market for all who are in I/O or balloon loans will pick-up. The margins of small business are getting squeezed because of the completion having low prices and most people are shopping based on price as the main factor. Franchise business owners are losing their shirts because of the big commitments that are required to open-up the shops.  The advertising and royalty fees is equal the profit they could be living on but is taken by franchisor.  The housing market in OC/Inland Empire will slow and prices will be flat if the interest rate climbs.” - E. H.

The small guys are always getting squeezed out.

“I have seen in the last 5 months that since unemployment is so low, the quality of temporary help is not as good as usual.” -C.T.

What unemployment????

“Business (technology) is pretty good, but not as good as we would like.

Except for technical/engineers where skills are very specific and we have difficulties hiring, we are generally able to hire our needs. OC is hot. Whatever "bubble" there is, it's made of plastic, not soap. OC real estate really is worth current valuations. You either pay the dues/prices or move down/inland. Fact of life. 20% price changes just are not likely. Financial structure/creativity will outrun home value decreases. Home values will continue to increase faster than the costs of cash flow financing after adjusting with 5-year fixed interest ARMs, etc. The "killer" to the economy is coming. Significant changes to capital gains 15% will create a panic of sorts, and channel what people think is "their" profit to the stupid governments that don't know how to fix problems. Temporary worker programs? B#@* S#@^% (you can imagine what was here but we're a PG rated office) -- Seal the border. California has 30% Hispanic population now. We have enough labor to pick crops for the whole U.S. ” - JK

We are always politically correct.

“Not seeing a lot of new jobs, but replacement jobs seem to be occurring. The IT area is keeping steady with integration still being considered a challenge.” -M.P.

What!!! Someone told me that the IT market was HOT!

“As far as the economy, housing market appears to be getting "soft". All of the sales I have seen recently went for below listed price and there are a lot more houses on the market and they are staying on the market longer.  I doubt we will have a severe negative downturn but I do see a "fizzle" coming. The job market still appears to be relatively tight for production level employees.  Demand appears to be steady. The Big So-Cal economic machine appears to be on a “steady as she goes” path.” – J.

Interesting.

“With the continuing consolidation in the retail industry, the fashion apparel industry is under more price pressure as our cadre of customers thins.  Additional pressure for lower prices is also cause by the increase prevalence of higher fashion merchandise in the mass merchant channel. In the M&A area we see activity as major companies, (e.g. Liz Claiborne, V.F, etc.), are in search of more brands to add to their portfolios.  This ultimately causes the job market in the industry to decrease.“  - JM

SoCal at one time had more clothing firms…….

“Working with big box stores I see a boom in convergence consumer electronic products and accessories.   Demographics among big box store shoppers have two age group peaks,  the 35-45 year old group who has money to spend and are looking for tools to make life simpler, such as PDA/Email/Cell and even mini computer capabilities in products like the Blackberry, Trio and now the 8125 (always out of stock.)  These have become simple to use and even sought by older demographics who no longer want to sit behind the computer to read email.   The 18-30 groups continue to seek the latest in music video downloads and gaming devices.   So it looks up for manufactures and distributors of consumer electronics for next 18 months who are making the low cost components which allow all these toys to communicate. 

I thought the real estate market would have already busted, but we have only seen a slow down not a bust.  A concern is that I have contacts within both WaMu and Countrywide who tell me that delinquencies are at an all time high.  Many have bought expensive homes and used variable interest rate loans that have now shot up to point that they cannot make monthly payments.   They may have equity in the home but the credit score has been devastated because of delinquent mortgage payments so they can't refinance.    If this trend continues and delinquencies turn to defaults the mortgage holders will flood the market with lower priced homes causing prices to come back down much like in the early 90's.” - J W

Just what I needed, more toys I can't figure out how to use. The delinquencies won't be as bad as the early 90's.

“The software segment is seeing some consolidation and variability within the sector, but overall continued growth. Headcount continues to grow, and we are adding staff all over the world. As you might imagine, we are adding more aggressively in low cost areas like Russia (we have 400 developers there) but do not have any staff in India , and only small outposts in China .” – EJ

No India programmers? Unheard of!

“20%+ correction, but I have been wrong before.  I think you guys are smart to get ahead of the curve.” Z.

What curve?

Our favorite negative response (OK, it was actually the only negative response but it was too good not to publish.)

“Of course, you probably consider your broadcast to be of value, right? What I see is a arrogrant owner who will suck life out of his own network to make gain for himself. I interviewed with you long ago and found you to be disrespectful and insulting. I have never been offered any opportunity from ankgrp and would never ever consider helping you become more enlighten to your own industry. In my opinion your firm should be knowledgeable in economical/employment trends. That is what you have been paid for all these years. It's clear your out of touch! “ - KE

Whew – that one is a doozy. First, our files show that we've never interviewed KE. Second, the survey was in the spirit of fun. To gain some insight into numerous industries – we have been specializing in Real Estate the last three years – every since the dot bombs disappeared. We are not soothsayers for every industry out there. Third, if you're going to send out a nasty email it is best when attempting to make a big impact to spell and grammar check the email before you send it. Also, we truly hope she develops a better, positive, out look on life, work, networking etc.

 

 

 

 

 

May 2006

Can you believe that they actually published my comments?

 

April 2006

Employee retention and what are you doing to keep them happy?

Recently there were articles in the OC Register and the Wall Street Journal pertaining to counter offers.  We have seen some of this lately and have had great placements fall apart because of counter offers. It doesn't matter if you are in manufacturing, technology, real estate development or finance, in this market if you have someone good working for you, somebody else wants him. The following is something to think about both for the candidates as well as the employer:

 

Employer scenario --

Your star employee comes in and gives notice.  What do you do?  You panic.  In this marketplace it is going to be hard to replace them.   What is the easy solution, match the money and keep them?  That might be easy for now but what about down the road when it happens again.  If the employee was happy with you, why did they look in the first place?

 

For the employee --

You get a great offer.  You go to give notice and your boss immediately offers to match or beat the offer.  At this point, you have to ask yourself why was I not worth this yesterday and why did it take another offer to make them realize what I am really worth? 

 

A word to the wise on this; a lot of companies will keep you around until they find a suitable replacement.  It is easier to pay you a little more now and when they find a decent replacement for you, you are gone.  The fact that you are looking in the first place will always be in their mind no matter how much they pay you now.

 

Bottom Line -- If you get a great offer, you are better off taking it than playing games with it.

 

 

Dave Ankenbrandt

949-955-1455 X 125

 

 

 

Date: 02/22/06

A woman of her word!


Another rant- we just placed a controller with a real estate investment firm - the candidate gave notice to her current employer - the current employer counted with more $$$ and only a 4 day work week - she turned them
down- she made a commitment to her future employer and she's going to honor that commitment. Don't see that happen much these days......

 

Date:  02/14/06

Happy Valentines Day!

Scott just handed me an OC Register article by Erin White on juggling multiple offers. Erin made some very good points but I think that she needs to put more emphasis on being honest and open with potential employers. In today's world it is very common for candidates to receive several offers and then playing the offers off against one an other - think that's a big mistake - the world keeps getting smaller and your reputation is all you have. Think that the candidate needs to be very clear and open about the job search. Don't play off the offers- could turn around and bit you on the a.....

Date:  11/10/05

Don't forget to check out all of our current assignments under the jobs tab.  There are some great jobs out there.  If they are not right for you, I know that you know some one out there that would fit.  Use the "tell a friend" link to let them know.

 

Date: 11/09/05

Hey, Ankenbrandt here!

 

Can you believe that we are nearing year end? Where did it all go?  It has been a busy year.  Business is good, health is good, family is good, and the office is totally new.  WHAT? The office is new?  You know me, Old Ankenbrandt is not one for change, but we went through a lot of it this year.  We have remodeled our offices, added all new furniture and work stations, and as you can see from this blog, a new website.  They tell me around here that change is good and so far it has been.  We have gone through our own “Extreme Makeover” and to be quite honest, I like it.  I invite you to come on by and take a look.  We look forward to seeing you then!

 

-David M. Ankenbrandt